Booker Rising – Was “The Bradley Effect” Responsible For Obama’s Surprise Loss In New Hampshire?

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Discuss: Was “The Bradley Effect” Responsible For Obama’s Surprise Loss In New Hampshire?

Before New Hampshire’s primary, polls showed Sen. Barack Obama with a 10-15 point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. Even Sen. Clinton’s campaign was acknowledging that she was gonna get thumped in New Hampshire. Yet Sen. Clinton pulled out a 39% to 37% victory over Sen. Obama. What happened last night?

As the New Hampshire election returns were coming in last night, I commented here on Booker Rising: “In response to Ronnie B’s question above, my prediction is that the difference between Obama’s blowout poll numbers and tonight’s close election results may be the ‘black candidate’ effect. Iowa was a caucus state, where folks (on the Democratic side, as the GOP caucus involved secret ballots) had to openly declare which candidate they supported and there was opportunity to persuade someone to come to one’s side if their first-choice candidate did not meet the viability threshhold. New Hampshire is a primary state, with a secret ballot, which may play more into the ‘black candidate’ effect.”

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